What do Americans want in a President? People have offered qualities ranging from the lofty (say, strong moral convictions) to the trivial (height). In recent years, however, a very simple answer has emerged: swing voters go for the candidate who seems the least annoying. Even Obama’s opponents concede he’s personally likable, while McCain had just enough of a temper for undecideds to muse, “Do I really need this guy screaming on TV for the next four years?” (Similar reasoning helped Clinton take Dole in ’96.) Dubya’s not particularly ingratiating — the oft-cited survey about how Americans wanted to have a beer with him always struck me as crap, particularly since as a recovering alcoholic Dubya’s drink would have to be immediately followed by a ride to the closest rehab center — but he had the good fortune to run against Kerry and Gore, who were often knocked for being robotic, but that seems unfair to robots (they wish they were half as charismatic as WALL-E ).

This brings us to Alaska’s soon-to-be former governor. By virtue of apparently being the only member of the Republican party not currently getting luvin’ on the side, she seems the frontrunner for the 2012 presidential nomination. However, Palin is not likable. It’s possible to love Sarah Palin in a deep and genuine and unquestioning way, and there is a significant chunk of the American population itching for the chance to vote for her. That said, for every one of these supporters there are at least 1.5 people who can’t stand her. Indeed, she terrifies them, because they look at a politician who couldn’t even be bothered to serve three years as Alaska’s governor (and chose to announce this in a press conference where she was overshadowed by geese) and they think, “This woman could soon be running America.”

Then they curl up in the fetal position.

They can uncurl. Should Sarah Palin be more interested in high office than a talk show, she would guarantee Obama’s reelection no matter how slowly the recovery goes or how many stupid things Joe Biden says. Conservatives try to put Palin in the tradition of Ronald Reagan, but she’s more in the mold of his one-time opponent Walter Mondale. Not ideologically, of course, but in the sense that Mondale was a man who managed to connect deeply with the Democratic party’s base (he beat down a challenge from Gary Hart, who was still in his pre-Donna Rice rising star phase), only to be exposed to the general population and… nothing. Indeed, Democrats had a knack for finding such candidates during this time period (four years later they turned to Michael Dukakis). Why couldn’t these men connect with the general population? Many reasons, but I suspect the crucial one had nothing to do with their political views; it was simply that people would sooner gnaw their own faces off than listen to them talk.

Granted, this was because both men were spectacularly boring and that’s one thing that’s never been a problem for Palin, but while voters want a minimum amount of excitement they don’t want an overload either. Palin’s exact Democratic equivalent is probably the Reverend Jesse Jackson. This is an assertion bound to cause no end of offense to both sides, but look at the similarities: both broke the “only white males can run for national office” paradigm, both have questionable resumes in terms of government service (we all know Palin’s lack of qualifications; Jackson was D.C.’s shadow Senator for a time and that’s about it), both have less-than-tidy personal lives (the married Jackson fathered a child with a staffer; in additional to the things reported weekly in People, Palin married a man who supported Alaska leaving the United States — didn’t we fight a war to stop things like that from happening?), both can really work a crowd of partisans, both know how to get their names in the press, both inspire uncontrollable anger in their opponents, and both are easy punch lines just as much as respected leaders.

Of course, Jesse Jackson’s moment has long passed and he never did get the Democratic presidential nomination. Still, it could be argued that he played a crucial role paving the way for Barack Obama’s victory. Jackson both proved an African-American man could win votes and, perhaps more importantly, made Obama seem quite moderate and low-key by comparison. If so, this is potentially bad and good news for the Republicans. The bad news, of course, is that the most exciting member of their party is a sure-loser if she seeks the presidency next election. The good news? She may lay the groundwork for the next generation of Palin-types so that, in 2032, American will see a laid-back Alaskan hockey mom reach the White House and prove that in America, truly anything is possible.

Man of the Moment appears each Wednesday.

Tweet  Print This Post

Tags: politics & government // Add Comment »