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Genius: More fleeting than Glory

Oh so briefly yesterday I was a genius. The stay was brief indeed but for a moment my decision to straight cash out my 401k last fall, derided by good and intelligent people in my life and in media was vindicated in an instant and for an instant as the Dow dipped below where it was when I bailed.

Now of course the experts and others with interests vested and invested tell us the drop that bounced so mightily off the bottom was the fault of a fat-fingered trader sitting at a computer somewhere who entered “b” instead of “m”, mistakenly selling a thousand times more shares than intended. Some churlish types might wonder why a computer could not tell that a billion shares of ANYthing do not exist and so politely inquire, as they so often do, “Are you SURE you want to sell 15 billion shares of Widget Unlimited?” but let us not indulge the churls. Instead, let us consult the Genii. Since I once was one I will translate from genii-ese to english.

The market genii tell us that this was a mistake of program trading and it was a one-off, nothing to see here, there was a faulty keystroke that sent you and yours to the poorhouse for a nanosecond but you are back now. So I suppose mistyping is regulated today when yesterday it was not, no doubt as a sop to the hellish Republicans who desire nothing but the law of the jungle to obtain in financial markets. But the new financial regs make typos punishable in the stocks, the wooden kind. The fat finger of misfate will not harry you again, investing public, especially if the regulation package is actually passed. Sleep soundly.

The political genii (not strictly segregated from the market types) plead for calm. Yes, the news screens were all awash with that Greek Fire in Athens that turned out to be a trio of bank tellers immolated in the street, but have no fear. Sure this sort of sensational event can sometimes affect global markets but the Greek riots are an isolated and remote event. Are any of you heavily invested in feta cheese? Not likely. The Greeks have spent money they did not have, indeed far more than ever existed in drachmae, and spent it in euros which functionally are deutschmarks. They have promised their public employees outlandish payouts individually while radically increasing their numbers to the hosannas from the gub employees unions and sullen acceptance from everyone else. This situation is unique. Well, it also describes France of course. And Germany to a lesser extent. Well, the UK is also in this sort of pickle but they are not in the eurozone. In any event it is the International Monetary Fund that is bailing out Greece, not you. The US only contributes 17% of IMF funds so this is a red herring as concerns the US market. Bank on that, literally.

Academic types, experts in economics likewise see no great cause of concern. Whatever gyrations in the markets our fiscal house is in good order at its foundation. Our own labor unions have increased their liabilities like the Greeks and other Euro-types, true, but quite craftily they have moved much of this off their books as in the GM and Chrysler bailouts and hope for much more of the same. O-care and its relatives promise to remove much of the irksome healthcare liability which is stratospheric and increasing and laying it at the feet of the federal gub at its enthusiastic request. Comes macro news that 290k jobs have been created. No doubt far more have been saved but modesty forbids any such claim. Unemployment creeps to 9.9% but as anyone with minimal mathematic ability can see, this is below double digits. There is no need to cash in your corporate bonds and buy bulk gunpowder. If they were Chrysler bonds you are only getting ten cents on the dollar anyhow so obviously the consensus of genius is that stay-the-course is the route for all, or at least those in nice, captive, tax-defered accounts. Almost certainly this is you.

Sic transit gloria mundi… thus fade the glories of this world and yes we can lump genius into the basket of glories; my genius anyhow as it has already passed its shelf life of, apparently, a third of a second. I have to say I may well enjoy my remaining years much better as a proletarian dufus rather than one of that geniocracy currently calling the shots. Genius seems to have an enervating effect as if it were me or you standing on that graven pedestal the growing and nearing fiscal terrors of which Greece seems sui generus would have us screaming for the lifeboats, assuming there are lifeboats on our financial cruise-liner. And that induced panic would be a disaster in and of itself. So hear and heed the genii, friends and foes. They advise you to keep  your seats. There is no need for panic. And if there were it wouldn’t do any good anyhow.

But if you are the praying type you might send one out, “Dear Lord, I pray that Ken is as dumb as he looks. Or even dumber.”

Amen.

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