The real reason why Obama might actually win

The national polls ^[1] are tied and President Obama has a lead in Ohio ^[2]. Mitt Romney needs Ohio to win the Electoral College and consequently the election. Therefore, it looks like the President might just pull off the unthinkable – an incumbent victory marred by scandal (Benghazi and Fast & Furious), an unpopular war (Afghanistan), high unemployment (7.9%), record debt ($16 trillion), and a struggling economy (2% GDP growth).

In any other election during any other time, it would be absolutely impossible for the incumbent to retain power. But in the United States today, there are 3 prominent political factors in masking the President’s incompetence that might give him an unlikely second term.

The first factor is the unpopularity of the President’s predecessor. When President Obama took office 4 years ago the trajectory of the economy was diving, debt was overwhelming, and there were 2, not just one, unpopular wars. President Bush was virtually blamed for all of this. Because of these difficult challenges, and deferred blame, it would seem that any failures by Obama would be excusable, and even the smallest progress would be laudable. But this is not necessarily true. Not if you either impede progress or make things worse. And not if the previous conditions weren’t as perilous as they were made out to be.

Obama impeded what traditionally would have been a normal cyclical recovery by overregulating and nebulously reinvesting. Because of Obamacare and no long term tax policy, businesses have been sitting on their cash instead of hiring. He actually made things worse by failing to pass a budget and doubling our debt. A debt so ominous that it could obliterate the dollar at China’s time and choosing.

More apparently, the President pettily and enthusiastically uses his predecessor’s unpopularity to create a set of hyper-perilous conditions in the past in order to show progress when there is none. He frequently touts ending the war in Iraq when in reality President Bush signed the Status of Forces ^[3]Agreement in 2008 that ended the war in 2011. And Afghanistan has only gotten worse since 2009, not better. He even attacks Romney’s economic policies based on two false assumptions. The first assumption being that it was solely Bush economic policies ^[4] that caused the recession, the next being that Romney would replicate those very same policies.

The second and perhaps most abhorrent factor in masking President Obama’s incompetence is the media. The media has done and continues to do a great job of disseminating this narrative that Obama is just trying to clean up the mess Bush left. When Obama ran for President in 2008 they romanticized him with affectionate hyperbole based solely on his rhetoric, yet they did little to vet him. He had done little in the state legislature and less in the Senate. He also had a half dozen or so radical associations, some of which included Bill Ayers and Jeremiah Wright.

Now during his presidency, they have given him a pass on almost every major failure or controversy associated with his administration. From an ineffective stimulus to an unpopular healthcare bill. From a disadvantageous cap and trade agreement to precarious off-mic comment ^[5] to the Russian president. Silence. When he came out for gay marriage this year, they applauded his progressive attitude instead of questioning his previous stance, or the convenient timing of his change of heart. When Bush was running for reelection they challenged him on Iraq all the time. How often do you hear President Obama have to defend his strategy in Afghanistan?

The most disturbing silence coming from the media is their lack of critical coverage for the attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi Libya. Almost two months after the attack the President still hasn’t had to answer what happened, why it happened, and why there were inconsistencies in the administration’s account of the events. In the second debate Candy Crowley of CNN actually inaccurately defended the President’s account. She later recanted her correction ^[6], but this recantation was barely covered at all.

The last and saddest factor is contemporary American culture itself. Never in history has the average American been so detached from national citizenry and global politics. People don’t know what’s really going on in our country or in our world. They get their news from Saturday Night Live, Comedy Central, Facebook, blog comments, and hearsay. They have no idea what the President has or hasn’t done, nor what role he plays in any or all of the major issues.

They also have an unprecedented sense of entitlement. They want world peace, cushy benefits, and good jobs. But they don’t want to pay for it. Obama magically promises all these things by taxing the rich. These comforting yet empty promises, more than his record, make him a hero.

So when the President is reelected tomorrow, don’t be confused as to why or how he won. He had the perfect set of historical circumstances for an impotent leader to retain power.